Uncertainty analysis of drainage flow modelling in goafing zone for underground mine development

January 7, 2026

Modelling pore pressure changes and drainage flow-through the fractured overburden above longwall panels is essential for subsidence assessment and dewatering planning in underground mine development. However, the fracturing and hydraulic characteristics during the mining process remain uncertain. This paper examines uncertainties in specifying hydraulic properties in the goafing zone above longwall panels within groundwater modelling during longwall operations. Parameter changes across the height above the panels and throughout mining stress periods were implemented within plausible ranges and constrained by parameter bounds from the literature. PEST-IES, an effective uncertainty analysis approach, was used to estimate parameter probability distributions across both space (height) and time. Uncertainty analysis was conducted by quantifying the percentiles of modelled pore pressure and dewatering rates to parameter variations in the goafing zone. Additionally, a detailed uncertainty and risk assessment was performed using an ensemble of model outcomes to support site operations and water management planning.

Wang, X. 2025 " Uncertainty analysis of drainage flow modelling in goafing zone for underground mine development,” in Proceedings of the LOM-MWT Conference 2025, July 29 – 30, 2025. Brisbane, Australia: Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM)